Litigation + Valuation Perspectives

Demystifying Valuation, Economic Damages + Forensic Accounting

Arizona population projections, marriages and divorces

A report from the CDC/NCHS (*), National Vital Statistics System (See Table 1) has disclosed some interesting facts about population, marriages and divorces covering our 50 states and the District of Columbia.

Marriage and Divorce

population, marriage, divorce, ArizonaThe national average of divorce to marriages per 1,000 total population is 45.6% (**).
When it comes to divorce, Arizona is one of the leaders, percentage-wise, in the U.S. As of July 1, 2014, the divorce rate in Arizona was 3.9 per 1,000 total population. The marriage rate per 1,000 total population was 5.8. Comparing the number of divorces to marriages per 1,000 total population equates to a 67.2% divorce rate. Nevada, on the other hand, has a divorce to marriage rate of only 16.6%. This statistic may be misleading for Nevada when considering that the state has a marriage rate of 31.9 per 1,000 total population and only a rate of 5.3 per thousand getting divorced. The high rate of marriages could be attributable to many non-residents getting married in Nevada, generally considered a fun place to tie the knot.

Other than Nevada, the state with the lowest percentage of divorces to marriages per 1,000 total population is Iowa. The state has a marriage rate of 6.9 marriages and a divorce rate of 1.5 divorces per 1,000 total population. This results in a divorce to marriage percentage of 21.7%. At 1.5 divorces per 1,000 total population, Iowa has the lowest rate reflected in the CDC/NCHS report.

population growth, marriage, divorce, Arizona

Arizona Population Projections

The Arizona Department of Administration, Office of Employment & Population Statistics (OEPS) in its recent report, dated December 11, 2015, indicated that the state’s total population at the end of 2015 was 6,758,251 (See Table 2). The county with the largest piece of this population was Maricopa, with total residents estimated at 4,076,438. Next was Pima County with a population of 1,009,371. The county with the fewest residents was Greenlee County with only 10,555 estimated residents.

population growth, Arizona, divorce, marriage

As for projected growth in Arizona, the OEPS estimates Arizona will have a population of 6,867,641 in 2016; 7,346,787 in 2020; 8,535,913 in 2030; 9,706,815 in 2040; and, by 2050, the state is estimated to have 10,820,872 residents.

The OEPS report indicates that in 2016 births in Arizona will be 88,097 and deaths will be 52,036, a difference of 36,061 (See Table 3). This results in a ratio of births to deaths of 1.69 times. By 2050 this ratio will be down to 1.22 times and the difference in births over deaths will be 23,129. The difference in births over deaths being much less in 2050 than in 2016 might be attributable to people simply living longer, healthier lives.

table-3

Donald R. Bays, CPA, ABV, CVA, CFF

(*) CDC = Centers for Disease Control and Prevention; NCHS = National Center for Health Services
(**) 45 states and the District of Columbia reporting both marriage and divorce statistics

Sources
(1) CDC/NCHS, National Vital Statistics System
(2) Office of Employment & Population Statistics, Arizona Department of Administration